Aztec, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS65 KABQ 112103
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
303 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

- Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected
  Saturday and Sunday afternoons due to breezy west winds and very
  low humidities. Fire starts will occur more easily and have the
  potential to spread rapidly.

- The warmest temps of the season thus far will occur over the
  weekend, creating minor heat-related impacts for those outside
  for an extended period of time without taking proper
  precautions.

- Gusty virga showers increase in coverage Monday and Tuesday,
  particularly over the high terrain of western and northern New
  Mexico.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The warming trend will continue through Saturday, with record highs
being threatened in many areas. Breezy to locally windy conditions
combined with very low humidities will create widespread elevated to
critical fire weather conditions both Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures decrease slightly early next week, but remain above
seasonal averages. Virga showers and isolated storms will likely
create gusty and erratic winds Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Satellite imagery shows a cumulus field developing around the high
terrain this afternoon where shallow low level moisture has hung on
from this morning. Strong heating and sufficient instability may
lead to a few high-based showers to the lee of the central mt chain
thru sunset. The 12Z HREF showed a couple tiny patches of 3-hr max
QPF near 0.10" east of Raton, but most areas are likely to produce
no more than a trace with gusty winds. Min temps tonight will trend
warmer as a surface lee trough deepens along the Front Range and the
boundary layer stays mixed most of the night across the plains.

Saturday will feature stronger southwest winds as the upper level
ridge breaks down over the southern Rockies. Surface low pressure
will deepen along the Front Range while 700-500mb winds increase to
between 30 and 40kt around the northern high terrain and northeast
NM. These speeds have trended lower on recent guidance and there are
low NBM probabilities that gusts will exceed 40 mph in the northern
mts. It will be extremely dry with many areas falling to near 5% in
the afternoon. Max temps are likely to break records in many areas
with widespread 80s and 90s. Folks are encouraged to practice fire
safety to prevent wildfires. The core of the stronger 700-500mb
layer winds are progged to pass overhead Saturday night then shift
into eastern NM Sunday. This will keep winds elevated in the high
terrain Saturday night with well above normal temps areawide. The
good news is this timing of the mid and upper level speed max has
led to a decrease in overall peak winds Sunday. It will still be
windier Sunday but not windy enough to support any Wind
Advisories. Very low humidity again will lead to high fire danger.
Max temps Sunday will be near-records again across eastern NM but
trend up to 5F cooler across the north and west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A backdoor front will continue surging south and westward Sunday
night, eventually squeaking through the gaps of the central mountain
chain by Monday morning. Temperatures will cool and humidities will
rise in the wake of the boundary, but given how shallow the front
is, temperatures will moderate quite a bit by Monday afternoon.
Guidance is in good agreement that a slug of mid-level moisture
will be advected in from the south out ahead of a shortwave trough
over Arizona on Monday. Inverted-V soundings and strong sfc
heating suggests isolated to scattered virga showers will develop,
particularly in the late afternoon and evening as mid-level
moisture is advected in from the south. Tuesday will be similar to
Monday, with gusty winds near virga showers and a slightly more
unstable atmosphere could support a few lightning strikes as well.

Dry westerly flow takes over again on Wednesday, heating up the
eastern plains and decreasing precipitation chances. The near-
stationary Low off the coast of California is finally forecast to
eject inland into the desert southwest late week, drawing the
dryline westward as it approaches. All forecast clusters are showing
at least 0.01" of precipitation across the entire forecast area for
the Friday to Saturday time period. One notable cluster (with ~10%
of models) shows a faster moving trough, more defined dryline, and
precipitation totals >0.1" across eastern NM, which would likely
result in at least a few strong to severe storms. Confidence is
still low this far out, but there is at least the potential for the
first storms of the season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Overall tranquil weather will continue over the next 24 hrs for
the vast majority of the region. A couple high-based showers with
gusty winds may develop along the east slopes of the central mt
chain after 4pm then shift eastward into the nearby high plains
thru sunset. The greatest risk will be east of Raton and Ruidoso.
Skies will clear all areas overnight with light surface winds. An
area of LLWS may develop between Roswell and Clovis after midnight
as southerly winds strengthen aloft ahead of the next system for
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A fire growing pattern will develop Saturday and Sunday as an upper
level ridge breaks down across the southern Rockies. Confidence is
very high on single digit humidities both Saturday and Sunday with
poor overnight recoveries areawide. However, 20ft winds are still
the greatest uncertainty. Model trends still show marginal speeds in
a few areas Saturday with a slight increase in wind speeds Sunday.
Combined probabilities for min humidity <15% and wind speeds >20mph
are highest in northeast and west-central NM Saturday with >80%
likelihood of critical conditions. Coverage of critical conditions
still increases Sunday with the highest probabilities focusing from
the Sangre de Cristos and nearby highlands southward toward Clines
Corners and Corona (>90% likelihood). ERC values have rebounded to
where they were prior to last weekends rain/snow event (above 90th
percentile at many sites). However, green-up has begun to develop
with responses noted in the most recent satellite Green Vegetation
Fraction. All-in-all, confidence was high enough to upgrade the West
Central Mts (Zone 105) to a Red Flag for Saturday but winds remain
too marginal for the West Central Basin and Range (Zone 109). The
Fire Weather Watch was left unchanged for Sunday until consistency
in the wind forecast improves. Changes that may occur would be some
expansion into the East-Central Plains and parts of the western high
terrain and perhaps middle Rio Grande Valley.

A backdoor cold front is still expected to bring increasing moisture
and cooler temps Monday, followed by increasing chances for a few
high-based showers Tuesday, then more wind and low humidity possible
again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  82  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  78  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  40  79  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  29  82  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  39  77  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  32  82  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  39  81  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  49  84  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  41  80  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  32  85  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  32  89  38  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  72  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  51  79  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  42  78  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  39  75  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  28  70  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  27  71  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  32  79  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  38  77  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  45  86  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  85  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  87  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  90  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  89  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  45  91  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  48  89  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  44  90  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  46  89  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  43  90  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  53  85  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  88  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  93  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  80  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  46  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  47  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  84  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  42  79  45  75 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  48  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  44  82  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  51  85  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  80  51  77 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  80  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................  38  85  41  81 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  38  85  42  81 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  41  81  44  78 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  46  89  51  84 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  45  85  48  82 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  47  92  50  89 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  47  89  50  84 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  49  92  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  50  91  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  47  92  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  92  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  53  96  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  48  91  52  87 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  88  53  84 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ104-105-
121-123.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NMZ109.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NMZ121>123-125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.